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Golden Globes 2021: The Final Predictions

by Diego Andaluz
A collage of 2021 Golden Globe nominees The Queen's Gambit, Hamilton, and Promising Young Woman.

The first major award ceremony of the season, the ever-controversial Golden Globes bring with them a flurry of films hoping to hit it big. As always, this year looks to be one full of surprises, twists, and turns. Luckily, I, Awards Editor Diego Andaluz, will guide the way and help you get a leg up on your predictions and what to look for as more ceremonies draw closer. With these final predictions for the 2021 Golden Globes, will frontrunners like Mank and Nomadland still lead the way? Or will surprise contenders like Promising Young Woman and Hamilton (which isn’t even a movie) nab wins?

The number 1 slots are reserved for who we firmly believe will be striking gold on Sunday, February 28. The films under our predicted winners in bold are runner ups ranked in how likely they are to cause an upset. Read along to see all the categories with more analysis as to how this will affect the Oscars in April!

Best Motion Picture – Drama 

  1. WINNER – “The Trial of the Chicago 7” (Netflix) 
  2. “Mank” (Netflix) 
  3. “Nomadland” (Searchlight Pictures) 
  4. “Promising Young Woman” (Focus Features) 
  5. “The Father” (Sony Pictures Classics) 

In line with our latest Oscar predictions, the Best Motion Picture Drama category seems to be a tight race. The Father‘s surprise nomination here boosts its Academy Award nomination chances, but chances of a slim victory are unlikely. Now Promising Young Woman, despite also being somewhat of a surprise, is a much different story. If there is one film that has been able to tap into the surprise industry buzz vein like Parasite did last year, it’s this one (albeit to a lesser and more controversial extent than Parasite). While it’s far from a sure bet, with the industry whispers of support that we have heard in the past few weeks, it must not be ruled out entirely. Though critical favorite Nomadland and industry-centric Mank will certainly put up a strong fight, the way in which The Trial Of The Chicago 7 is able to employ timely and important themes in a light and digestible way signals that it’s right up the HFPA’s alley and will emerge victorious here.

Best Motion Picture – Musical or Comedy 

  1. WINNER – Hamilton” (Walt Disney Pictures) 
  2. “Borat Subsequent Moviefilm” (Amazon Studios) 
  3. “Palm Springs” (Neon) 
  4. “The Prom” (Netflix) 
  5. “Music” (Vertical Entertainment)

With no nominees that are prominently seen in the Oscar’s Best Picture race, this is the first time that many of these films are competing for the top prize. While this category had the potential to be a total toss up, Sia’s controversial debut Music seems to have been fueled by its star power, but will most likely fall short on Globes night. The Prom‘s musical extravaganza and Palm Springs‘ clever use of comedy do give them a chance, but the race looks to be between Borat: Subsequent Moviefilm and Hamilton. In a more traditional setting, it would be clear that the Borat sequel would win the category, but the fact that the HFPA did include Hamilton as a “film” rather than disqualifying it for being a stage play shows that voters passionately wanted to pull it through. Due to its nomination, its acceptance as a film, and its status as an immense cultural phenomenon – we will put it ahead… if only just for a bit. 

Best Actor in a Motion Picture – Drama

  1. WINNER – Anthony Hopkins (“The Father”) 
  2. Chadwick Boseman (“Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom”)
  3. Riz Ahmed (“Sound of Metal”) 
  4. Gary Oldman (“Mank”) 
  5. Tahar Rahim (“The Mauritanian”)

Despite showing love for Riz Ahmed, Gary Oldman, and underdog contender Tahar Rahim, it’s clear that as always, this category is a two-horse race. Ahmed and Rahim could surprise, along with industry legend Oldman (who won for Darkest Hour). However, it seems as if this one will fall on either Hopkins’ or Boseman’s lap. Will the HFPA award the multi-nominee that has never picked up a win despite his illustrious career? Or will they go with the a truly great performance from a young actor that, unfortunately, marks his last chance at awards success. Only time will tell, but looking at the Globe’s love for impactful campaign narratives, we think the former will prevail. One thing is certain though: Whoever wins this one, will most likely go on to dictate the majority of the season

Best Actress in a Motion Picture – Drama

  1. WINNER – Carey Mulligan (“Promising Young Woman”) 
  2. Viola Davis (“Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom”) 
  3. Frances McDormand (“Nomadland”)
  4. Andra Day (“The United States vs. Billie Holiday”) 
  5. Vanessa Kirby (“Pieces of a Woman”) 

A category that we originally found to be much more defined, these nominations have shaken things up to the point where anyone can win. While Viola Davis and Frances McDormand are both running strong campaigns, Carey Mulligan looks to be the new frontrunner after emerging waves of support for her and the film. Andra Day’s showy performance in The United States vs. Billie Holiday is right in line with the work the HFPA loves, but the film’s recent wide release was met with a lackluster response. This also seems to be the end of the road for Vanessa Kirby’s chances, as Pieces Of A Woman‘s campaign has lost much steam.

Best Actress in a Motion Picture – Musical or Comedy 

  1. WINNER – Maria Bakalova (“Borat Subsequent Moviefilm”) 
  2. Rosamund Pike (“I Care a Lot”)
  3. Michelle Pfeiffer (“French Exit”) 
  4. Anya Taylor-Joy (“Emma”) 
  5. Kate Hudson (“Music”)

Perhaps the category with the closest thing to a lock (although that isn’t truly a thing at the Globes), all signs point to Maria Bakalova walking away with a Globe in hand. She’s the only contender in this category to have not skipped a beat when it comes to (Supporting) Actress nominations, so Bakalova won’t be facing an uphill battle similar to the one she will face when the Oscars come around. Anya Taylor Joy would be strong competition, but expect the Globes to split and award her for her frontrunner performance in the Limited Series category for The Queen’s Gambit. Even though Hudson is a long shot, Pfeiffer, and Pike do have the potential to put up a fight with their highly regarded celebrity status (sadly an all-too important factor in the Globes selection process). On top of that, the fact that Pike’s buzz has been so recent may mean that she’s fresh in the minds of voters as well, which could propel her to stage an upset.

Best Actor in a Motion Picture – Musical or Comedy 

  1. WINNER – Lin-Manuel Miranda (“Hamilton”) 
  2. Sacha Baron Cohen (“Borat Subsequent Moviefilm”) 
  3. James Corden (“The Prom”)
  4. Andy Samberg (“Palm Springs”)
  5. Dev Patel (“The Personal History of David Copperfield”) 

Another category in which a possible split will affect the outcome of the victor. If not for Hamilton‘s inclusion, Sacha Baron Cohen would be the clear winner here. However, with both the presence of Lin Manuel Miranda in this category, along with Cohen’s likely win in Supporting Actor for The Trial of The Chicago 7, expect this category to serve as a way to award the man behind one of the greatest cultural moments in recent memory: Miranda himself. Yet, if the HFPA decides to pick Kaluuya in supporting, it’s all but guaranteed that Cohen will emerge victorious here. 

OTHER FILM PREDICTIONS: 

Best Actor in a Supporting Role in Any Motion Picture

  1. WINNER – Sacha Baron Cohen (“The Trial of the Chicago 7”) 
  2. Daniel Kaluuya (“Judas and the Black Messiah”) 
  3. Leslie Odom, Jr. (“One Night in Miami”) 
  4. Jared Leto (“The Little Things”)
  5. Bill Murray (“On the Rocks”) 

Best Actress in a Supporting Role in Any Motion Picture 

  1. WINNER – Glenn Close (“Hillbilly Elegy”) 
  2. Amanda Seyfried (“Mank”) 
  3. Olivia Colman (“The Father”) 
  4. Jodie Foster (“The Mauritanian”)
  5. Helena Zengel (“News of the World”)

Best Original Score – Motion Picture 

  1. WINNER – “Soul” (Pixar) – Trent Reznor, Atticus Ross, Jon Batiste 
  2. “Mank” (Netflix) – Trent Reznor, Atticus Ross 
  3. “Tenet” (Warner Bros.) – Ludwig Göransson 
  4. “News of the World” (Universal Pictures) – James Newton Howard 
  5. “The Midnight Sky” (Netflix) – Alexandre Desplat 

Best Motion Picture – Foreign Language 

  1. WINNER – “Minari” (A24) 
  2. “Another Round” (Samuel Goldwyn Films) 
  3. The Life Ahead” (Netflix) 
  4. ““Two of Us”
  5. “La Llorona” (Shudder) 

Best Screenplay – Motion Picture 

  1. WINNER – “The Trial of the Chicago 7” (Netflix) 
  2. “Promising Young Woman” (Focus Features) 
  3. “Nomadland” (Searchlight Pictures) 
  4. “Mank” (Netflix) 
  5. “The Father” (Sony Pictures Classics) 

Best Original Song – Motion Picture

  1. WINNER – “Speak Now” from “One Night in Miami” (Amazon Studios) – Leslie Odom Jr, Sam Ashworth 
  2. “Io Si (Seen)” from “The Life Ahead” (Netflix) – Diane Warren, Laura Pausini, Niccolò Agliardi 
  3. “Hear My Voice” from “The Trial of the Chicago 7” (Netflix) – Daniel Pemberton, Celeste
  4. “Fight for You” from “Judas and the Black Messiah” (Warner Bros.) – H.E.R., Dernst Emile II, Tiara Thomas 
  5. “Tigress & Tweed” from “The United States vs. Billie Holliday” (Hulu) – Andra Day, Raphael Saadiq

Best Motion Picture – Animated 

  1. WINNER – “Soul” (Walt Disney Pictures) 
  2. “Wolfwalkers” (Cartoon Saloon)
  3. “Over the Moon” (Netflix) 
  4. “Onward” (Walt Disney Pictures) 
  5. “The Croods: A New Age” (Universal Pictures) 

Best Director – Motion Picture

  1. WINNER – David Fincher, “Mank” (Netflix) 
  2. Chloé Zhao, “Nomadland” (Searchlight Pictures) 
  3. Aaron Sorkin, “The Trial of the Chicago 7” (Netflix) 
  4. Regina King, “One Night in Miami” (Amazon Studios) 
  5. Emerald Fennell (“Promising Young Woman”) 

TELEVISION PREDICTIONS:

Best Drama Series 

  1. WINNER – “The Crown”
  2. “Ozark”
  3. “Lovecraft Country”
  4. “The Mandalorian”
  5. “Ratched”

Best Actress in a Drama Series

  1. WINNER – Emma Corrin, “The Crown”
  2. Olivia Colman, “The Crown”
  3. Laura Linney, “Ozark”
  4. Jodie Comer, “Killing Eve”
  5. Sarah Paulson, “Ratched”

Best Actor in a Drama Series

  1. WINNER – Jason Bateman, “Ozark”
  2. Josh O’Connor, “The Crown”
  3. Bob Odenkirk, “Better Call Saul”
  4. Al Pacino, “Hunters”
  5. Matthew Rhys, “Perry Mason”

Best Comedy Series

  1. WINNER – “Schitt’s Creek”
  2. “Ted Lasso”
  3. “The Great”
  4. “The Flight Attendant”
  5. “Emily in Paris”

Best Actress in a Comedy Series

  1. WINNER – Catherine O’Hara, “Schitt’s Creek”
  2. Elle Fanning, “The Great”
  3. Kaley Cuoco, “The Flight Attendant” 
  4. Lily Collins, “Emily in Paris”
  5. Jane Levy, “Zoey’s Extraordinary Playlist”

Best Actor in a Comedy Series

  1. WINNER – Jason Sudeikis, “Ted Lasso”
  2. Eugene Levy, “Schitt’s Creek”
  3. Nicholas Hoult, “The Great”
  4. Ramy Youssef, “Ramy”
  5. Don Cheadle, “Black Monday”

Best Miniseries Or Television Film

  1. WINNER – “The Queen’s Gambit”
  2. “The Undoing”
  3. “Normal People”
  4. “Small Axe”
  5. “Unorthodox”

Best Actress in a Miniseries Or Television Film

  1. WINNER – Anya Taylor-Joy, “The Queen’s Gambit”
  2. Cate Blanchett, “Mrs. America”
  3. Nicole Kidman, “The Undoing”
  4. Daisy Edgar-Jones, “Normal People”
  5. Shira Haas, “Unorthodox”

Best Actor in a Miniseries Or Television Film

  1. WINNER – Hugh Grant, “The Undoing”
  2. Mark Ruffalo, “I Know This Much Is True”
  3. Jeff Daniels, “The Comey Rule”
  4. Bryan Cranston, “Your Honor”
  5. Ethan Hawke, “The Good Lord Bird”

Best Supporting Actress in a Television Series, Miniseries Or Television Film

  1. WINNER – Gillian Anderson, “The Crown”
  2. Helena Bonham Carter, “The Crown”
  3. Julia Garner, “Ozark”
  4. Annie Murphy, “Schitt’s Creek”
  5. Cynthia Nixon, “Ratched”

Best Supporting Actor in a Television Series, Miniseries Or Television Film

  1. WINNER – Brendan Gleeson, “The Comey Rule”
  2. Dan Levy, “Schitt’s Creek”
  3. John Boyega, “Small Axe”
  4. Donald Sutherland, “The Undoing”
  5. Jim Parsons, “Hollywood”

Check out our latest wave of Oscar Predictions!

Follow Awards Editor Diego Andaluz on Twitter: @thediegoandaluz

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