The crown jewel of awards season is of course Academy Awards (commonly known as the Oscars), with an eager cohort of talented filmmakers awaiting the outcome of nominations morning annually. Following the nomination announcements for the BAFTA’s, SAG, and the Golden Globe and Critics Choice Ceremonies, Awards Editor Diego Andaluz is back with freshly updated thoughts and insights. Follow along in his latest report of the season to get a leg up on your own Oscar predictions and know what likely contenders you won’t want to miss for the rest of this season
Best Picture
Editor’s Picks:
- Oppenheimer
- Barbie
- The Holdovers
- Poor Things
- Killers of The Flower Moon
- American Fiction
- Past Lives
- Maestro
- Anatomy of a Fall
- The Zone of Interest
Next In Line:
- The Color Purple
- All of Us Strangers
- Origin
- May December
- Air
After Oppenheimer‘s impressive Golden Globes and Critics Choice sweep, it’s undeniable that Christopher Nolan’s latest film is the frontrunner heading into the Academy Award nominations announcement. At this point, the largest question is if any other contender has what it takes to challenge Oppenheimer’s crown, and if so, how? An argument could be made for Greta Gerwig’s Barbie. It is a blockbuster studio comedy, but it captured the zeitgeist which enabled it to fall into the lovable, crowd-pleasing, and socially relevant zone that has allowed previous nontraditional contenders to prevail on Oscar night (CODA, Parasite, Everything Everywhere All At Once). If it wins big at SAG, don’t be surprised if it takes it all by the end of the season.
On the other side of the spectrum, The Holdovers could strike a chord with a more traditional side of the Academy as an old-school 70’s style crowdpleaser that has received much praise for its balance of drama and comedy. While arguments could be made for other contenders who won precursors like Poor Things (Best Comedy at the Golden Globes) and American Fiction (which is picking up steam in Best Adapted Screenplay), neither has proven to be as strong as the top three.
Killers of The Flower Moon‘s near-perfect precursor guild nomination run puts the film in a prime position for a Best Picture nod but has failed to emerge as a primary contender for an overall win. Beloved independent favorite Past Lives and juggernaut-backed Maestro are likely to end up in a similar place, finding enough passion from within the industry to secure nominations, yet falling short of gaining momentum to win. For the final two nominees, expect Cannes prize winners Anatomy of a Fall and The Zone of Interest to round out the top ten. It would be the first time the Academy honors two foreign language films in their top category, but dual BAFTA Longlist and PGA nominations for both films signal major support from European voters and the most commercially friendly guild in the American contingent.
This top ten lineup would match perfectly with the PGA nominees, which in a non-sliding scale year has never matched 100% with the Best Picture lineup. While this is one of the few statistics that may be worth ignoring (after all, some statistics are broken every award season), a few contenders could break in with a surprise. The Color Purple could ride the wave of its SAG nomination love, if All of Us Strangers overperforms at the BAFTAs it could become a challenger, or even Origin could be propelled by its ever-increasing grassroots campaign by the voices that scored Andrea Riseborough a last-minute Best Actress nomination. That being said, those are currently unlikely outcomes, so expect the listed top ten to have their names called on nomination morning.
Best Actor
Editor’s Picks:
- Cillian Murphy (Oppenheimer)
- Paul Giamatti (The Holdovers)
- Bradley Cooper (Maestro)
- Jeffrey Wright (American Fiction)
- Colman Domingo (Rustin)
NEXT IN LINE: Leonardo DiCaprio (Killers of The Flower Moon), Barry Keoghan (Saltburn), Zac Efron (The Iron Claw), Andrew Scott (All of Us Strangers), Anthony Hopkins (Freud’s Last Session)
Two tight races mark this year’s Best Actor category. Cillian Murphy, Paul Giamatti, and Bradley Cooper make up a trio that should be considered locks for nominations, with each having their narrative for a feasible win. Bradley Cooper’s turn in Maestro which boasts a six-year preparation process initially seemed to stake its claim as the category’s leader, yet Cooper left empty-handed at both the Globes and Critics Choice Awards. Giamatti took home the Comedy Globe and beat out Murphy at CCA, which boosts his case here. Yet, if Cillian Murphy wins BAFTA and Oppenheimer dominates as much as it has in other voting bodies, expect him to take the crown on Oscar night.
When it comes to the nominations, the other tight race can be found in who will fill the other two slots. At the moment, we’ve placed CCA, Golden Globe, and SAG nominee Jeffery Wright here, boosted by passion for his Best Picture contending film American Fiction. Whilst Colman Domingo boasts the same precursor haul, Rustin has failed to connect with voters outside his performance which could result in a miss. With this, Leonardo DiCaprio or Barry Keoghan (boosted by the growing international contingent that nominated him for the Globe and BAFTA nabbed Paul Mescal a nomination last year) could end up in the final five.
Best Actress
Editor’s Picks:
- Emma Stone (Poor Things)
- Lily Gladstone (Killers of The Flower Moon)
- Carey Mulligan (Maestro)
- Sandra Huller (Anatomy of a Fall)
- Margot Robbie (Barbie)
NEXT IN LINE: Greta Lee (Past Lives), Annette Bening (Nyad), Aunjanue Ellis-Taylor (Origin)
In this category, the winning conversation is between a tight top two: Emma Stone and Lily Gladstone. Both won the Best Actress Globe (Stone for Comedy, Gladstone for Drama), with Lily Gladstone being the regional critics group frontrunner and Stone winning the Critics Choice Award. Who has the advantage? After Gladstone missed a BAFTA nomination, the smart move is to predict Stone as the current leader in the race.
Next up, Carey Mulligan looks to enter the final five, securing precursor nominations at the Globes, BAFTA, Critics Choice, and SAG. While there are occasionally a few actors who miss out on the Oscar despite this nomination haul, the odds are in Mulligan’s favor to stand strong. With hefty international support manifesting in a dual nomination for Sandra Huller at the BAFTA’s, expect her to have her name called on nomination morning as well.
Who will take the fifth slot? Margot Robbie seems likely to, given her large Globe, BAFTA, CCA, and SAG precursor haul and prominence in top-tier Best Picture contenders. Voters, however, may be won over by Annette Bening’s far showier performance, Greta Lee’s subtler turn, or choose to follow an uptick in the grassroots support movement for Aunjanue Ellis-Taylor.
Best Director
Editor’s Picks:
- Christopher Nolan (Oppenheimer)
- Martin Scorsese (Killers of the Flower Moon)
- Jonathan Glazer (The Zone of Interest)
- Yorgos Lanthimos (Poor Things)
- Alexander Payne (The Holdovers)
NEXT IN LINE: Justine Triet (Anatomy of a Fall), Greta Gerwig (Barbie), Bradley Cooper (Maestro)
While Christopher Nolan’s Best Director win is all but for the taking, the question of who will fill out the other four slots is one of the toughest of the season. After the BAFTA nominations, every other contender has missed out on at least one major precursor. Despite his BAFTA miss, we expect Martin Scorsese to clinch a nomination due to his Globe and CCA nominations combined with his status. One might think Greta Gerwig would be secure with a strong narrative as the face behind the well-constructed massive cultural and commercial success that was Barbie, yet this branch has a track record of failing to nominate commercial auteurs like Denis Villeneuve’s Dune, James Cameron’s Avatar: The Way of Water, and Christopher Nolan’s work in Inception and the Dark Knight, despite the size of their achievements. Who might replace her?
Best Supporting Actress
Editor’s Picks:
- Da’Vine Joy Randolph (The Holdovers)
- Danielle Brooks (The Color Purple)
- Emily Blunt (Oppenheimer)
- Jodie Foster (Nyad)
- Penélope Cruz (Ferrari)
NEXT IN LINE: Sandra Huller (The Zone of Interest), Julianne Moore (May December), Rosamund Pike (Saltburn), America Ferrera (Barbie), Claire Foy (All of Us Strangers)
Best Supporting Actor
Editor’s Picks:
- Robert Downey Jr. (Oppenheimer)
- Ryan Gosling (Barbie)
- Robert De Niro (Killers of the Flower Moon)
- Willem Dafoe (Poor Things)
- Mark Ruffalo (Poor Things)
NEXT IN LINE: Dominic Sessa (The Holdovers), Sterling K. Brown (American Fiction), Charles Melton (May December)
Original Screenplay:
1. The Holdovers
2. Anatomy of a Fall
3. Past Lives
4. Maestro
5. May December
Adapted Screenplay:
1. American Fiction
2. Barbie
3. Oppenheimer
4. Poor Things
5. Killers of the Flower Moon
NEXT IN LINE: Origin, All of Us Strangers, The Zone of Interest
Animated Feature:
1. Spider-Man: Across The Spider-Verse
2. The Boy and the Heron
3. Elemental
4. Nimona
5. Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles: Mutant Mayhem
NEXT IN LINE: Suzume, Robot Dreams,The Peasants, Chicken Run: Dawn Of The Nugget
Documentary Feature:
1. Beyond Utopia
2. 20 Days in Mariupol
3. Four Daughters
4. Still: A Michael J. Fox Movie
5. American Symphony
NEXT IN LINE: A Still Small Voice, The Eternal Memory, Bobi Wine: The People’s President
International Feature:
1. The Zone of Interest
2. Society of The Snow
3. Fallen Leaves
4. Io Capitano
5. 20 Days in Mariupol
NEXT IN LINE: The Taste of Things, Perfect Days
Production Design
1. Barbie
2. Poor Things
3. Killers of The Flower Moon
4. Oppenheimer
5. The Zone of Interest
NEXT IN LINE: Maestro, Asteroid City, Saltburn
Costume Design
1. Barbie
2. Poor Things
3. Killers Of The Flower Moon
4. Oppenheimer
5. Napoleon
NEXT IN LINE: Maestro, Wonka, Priscilla
Cinematography
1. Oppenheimer
2. Poor Things
3. Killers of The Flower Moon
4. Maestro
5. El Conde
NEXT IN LINE: Saltburn, The Zone of Interest, John Wick: Chapter 4
Editing
1. Oppenheimer
2. Killers Of The Flower Moon
3. The Holdovers
4. Anatomy Of A Fall
5. Poor Things
NEXT IN LINE: Barbie, Maestro, Ferrari
Visual Effects
1. The Creator
2. Society of the Snow
3. Guardians of The Galaxy Vol 3
4. Poor Things
5. Godzilla Minus One
NEXT IN LINE: Indiana Jones And The Dial Of Destiny, Spider-Man: Across The Spider-Verse, Mission: Impossible – Dead Reckoning Part One
Makeup and Hairstyling
1. Maestro
2. Poor Things
3. Society Of The Snow
4. Oppenheimer
5. Golda
NEXT IN LINE: The Last Voyage Of The Demeter, Napoleon, Killers of The Flower Moon
Sound
1. Oppenheimer
2. The Zone of Interest
3. Ferrari
4. Maestro
5. Napoleon
NEXT IN LINE: Barbie, The Killer, Mission: Impossible – Dead Reckoning Part One
Original Score
1. Oppenheimer
2. Spider-Man: Across The Spider-verse
3. Killers of The Flower Moon
4. Poor Things
5. Indiana Jone and the Dial of Destiny
NEXT IN LINE: Society of The Snow, Elemental, The Boy and The Heron, The Zone of Interest
Original Song
1. “What Was I Made For?” (Barbie)
2. “I’m Just Ken” (Barbie)
3. “Road To Freedom” (Rustin)
4. “The Fire Inside” (Flamin’ Hot)
5. “It Never Went Away” (American Symphony)
NEXT IN LINE: “Superpower (I)” (The Color Purple), “Quiet Eyes” (Past Lives), “Meet in the Middle” (Flora and Son)
Live Action Short
1. The Wonderful Story of Henry Sugar
2. The After
3. The Anne Frank Gift Shop
4. Yellow
5. An Avocado Pit
NEXT IN LINE: The Shepherd, Strange Way of Life, Invincible
Animated Short
1. Humo (Smoke)
2. Ninety-Five Senses
3. Our Uniform
4. Letter to a Pig
5. Twenty Seven
NEXT IN LINE: Once upon a Studio, WAR IS OVER! Inspired by the Music of John and Yoko, Pete, Eva
Documentary Short
1. The Last Repair Shop
2. Camp Courage
3. The ABCs of Book Banning
4. Last Song From Kabul
5. Deciding Vote
NEXT IN LINE: The Barber of Little Rock, Black Girls Play: The Story of Hand Games, Nai Nai & Wai Po
